التقرير الأسبوعي لمراكز الأبحاث الاميركية

تاريخ الإضافة الإثنين 1 آب 2011 - 6:27 ص    عدد الزيارات 891    التعليقات 0

        

تستمر الاستقطابات السياسية بين اليمين الاميركي ممثلا بالحزب الجمهوري وبين الرئيس اوباما على خلفية جدال رفع سقف الدين العام، رغم التنازلات الجوهرية التي قدمها اوباما وحزبه الديموقراطي والتي يرفضها اليمين وهو الذي استشعر مدى الضعف الذي يعاني منه اوباما لغرض ابتزازه بمزيد من التنازلات لصالح القوى الاكثر ثراء في المجتمع الاميركي؛ وهو الموضوع الرئيسي الذي نال اهتمام عموم مراكز الفكر والابحاث الاميركية الى جانب تداعيات الهجوم ومسلسل القتل الذي شهدته النرويج مؤخرا.

         وفي باب التحليل الثابت في هذه النشرة، يتناول مركز الرصد ما يعتبره مفاجأة الحزب الجمهوري باطلالة حاكم ولاية تكساس، ريك بيري، الشهر المقبل والتوقعات التي ترجح دخوله حلبة الترشيحات الرئاسية في الانتخابات المقبلة. وتجدر الاشارة الى ان بيري، خليفة جورج بوش الابن في منصب حاكم الولاية، يتمتع بفرصة عالية للتقدم على كل خصومه الحاليين نظرا لمكانته المرموقة داخل المؤسسة الحاكمة وخبرته الواسعة لا سيما في المجال الاقتصادي ودعم النخب الاساسية له. ويتناول التحليل كذلك المقارنات والاختلافات بين بيري وبوش الابن، لا سيما التوترات الراهنة بينهما، وما اذا ستكون ولايته امتدادا ام ابتعادا عن سياسات سلفه الرئيس جورج بوش الابن وفريقه.
 
         وفي شأن اوضاع النرويج، تناول معهد بروكينغز  فيما يخص التحولات التي طرأت على اوروبا الشرقية ووسطها في حقبة التسعينيات وبين تلك في مصر عام 2011 قد تكون مضللة، الا ان احد الدروس الهامة لعقد التسعينيات يبقى: التحول نحو الديموقراطية واقتصاد السوق الحر من غير المرجح ان يحالفه النجاح دون دعم شعبي عام وادراك لطبيعته واهميته. وهذا لن يمكنه النمو الا في تربة مجتمع مدني ينبض بالحياة يشارك في حوار من شأنه السماح لملكية اوسع للاصلاحات السياسية والاقتصادية المنتظرة. ويتعين على المجتمع الدولي دعم نقل الخبرات من مناطق اخرى من العالم – ليس فقط في اوروبا الشرقية بل في اميركا الجنوبية وتركيا والهند – لتنمية المؤسسات المطلوبة لاحتضان النقاشات العامة."
 
         وفي معادلة اولويات السياسة الخارجية للولايات المتحدة، تناول مجلس العلاقات الخارجية Council on Foreign Relations المتغيرات في الشرق الاوسط، لا سيما وان الادارة الاميركية تشدد على دعمها للحركات الديموقراطية في المنطقة، حسبما يعتقد المجلس، مطالبا الابتعاد عن اتباع صيغة "نموذج واحد يصلح لكافة الازمنة" كسياسة متبعة للرد على تداعيات "الربيع العربي." وشدد المركز على ضرورة الاهتمام بوسائط التنمية الاقتصادية في المنطقة لدعم التغيير السياسي، والعمل سوية مع الاطراف المحيطة بسورية والمجتمع الدولي للتوصل الى موقف موحد للتعامل مع سورية.
 
         وخصص معهد دراسة الحرب Institute for the Study of War جهده لبحث الوضع في ليبيا، وقال " مع التصعيد في الاشتباكات الذي تشهده ساحة القتال هذا الاسبوع، كانت هناك هبة من النشاط الديبلوماسي من قبل كافة الاطراف للتوصل الى حل سياسي. وبعد انقضاء اسبوع على تصريحات وزير الخارجية الفرنسية آلان جوبيه بان باريس تعقد اتصالات مع المسؤوولين الليبيين في طرابلس، لوحظ تخفيف لهجة فرنسا حول مسألة خروج القذافي منوهة الى قبول بقاءه في البلاد شريطة تخليه عن السلطة. وسار البيت الابيض على ذات النهج، منوها الى ان الأمر يعود الى الشعب الليبي للاقرار ببقاء القذافي في البلاد بعد تنحيه. كما وتستمر روسيا في جهودها التفاوضية بين حلف الناتو وطرابلس لتأمين خروج القذافي. وبعدما بحث وزير الخارجية الروسي سيرغي لافروف مع الرئيس اوباما الخطوات الديبلوماسية المقبلة الاسبوع الماضي، وسّعت روسيا نطاق اتصالاتها مع المسؤولين في كل من طرابلس وبنغازي. وبما ان هناك تقدم طفيف طرأ على هجوم المتمردين، فقد اعلن الرئيس الروسي ديميتري مدفيديف يوم الثلاثاء عن امكانية عقد صفقة حل وسط بين القذافي والمتمردين."
 
         اما الاوضاع السورية فقد تناولها معهد هدسون
 
          اما معهد واشنطن الصهيوني فقد تناول ما اسماه الاضطرابات في العراق، معربا عن اعتقاده بان "احد عوامل صمود، بل انبعاث، المقاتلين السنة هو في الدور المتعاظم لحركة جيش رجال الطريقة النقشبندية، الذي استطاع بنجاح استغلال مخاوف العرب السنة من حكومة يسيطر عليها الشيعة والاكراد، وفي ذات الوقت يطرحون خيارا عراقيا حقيقيا بديلا للقاعدة في العراق. وتتضح ميزات جيش رجال الطريقة النقشبندية، اذ يوفر حالة جديرة بالدراسة لحركة تمرد تعلمت من اخطاء مقاومين آخرين وادمجت بنجاح المباديء الاسلامية والخبرة العسكرية الوطنية."
 
         وتناول معهد ابحاث السياسة الخارجية  وفرض الديموقراطية بالقوة. وروسيا قلقة ايضا من ان يؤدي هذا (المرجح حدوثه) الى حالة جمود طويلة من شانها ان تؤجج اضطرابات السكان المسلمين لديها ولدى جيرانها وفي عموم الشرق الاوسط. ثانيا، ان النصر المحتمل لهذه القوات الثورية وحلف الناتو قد تدفع بهم الى ممارسة ضغوط مشابهة على سورية باستخدام المثال الليبي كسابقة للتدخل هناك. ثالثا، ان حالف النصر الثوار الليبيين والسوريين فقد يؤدي بهم النظر نحو حلف الناتو وليس نحو موسكو في المستقبل. وهذا من شأنه ان يعزز الوجود الغربي في الشرق الاوسط واتاحة الفرصة لحلف الناتو وحده ترتيب اوضاع المنطقة. وهذا سيشكل هزيمة ماحقة لاهداف موسكو الجيو-سياسية بعيدة المدى التي كانت تعتمد على مزاحمة الولايات المتحدة و/أو حلف الناتو لترتيب اوضاع منطقة الشرق الاوسط. حينها، ستواجه موسكو تهميشا لدورها الاقليمي، في مقابل سابقة نجاح حلف الناتو احادية الجانب باتباع الديبلوماسية القسرية."
 
         وجاء اهتمام معهد كارنيغي  وقال "المجتمع المدني والنقاش العام المفتوح والصحافة المستقلة كلها تعد عوامل ضرورية لنجاح الوضع الاقتصادي، الى جانب المرحلة الانتقالية السياسية. بما ان عقد المقارنات
 
         وجاءت محاولات التقارب وتطبيع العلاقات بين الهند والباكستان من نصيب مركز الدراسات الاستراتيجية والدولية ، وقال "ستحتل القضايا الاقتصادية مكانة بارزة في الجولة الحالية من المفاوضات. وجاء في البيان المشترك الصادر في 28 نيسان / ابريل بين وزراء الاقتصاد في البلدين ان "اتساع التبادل التجاري والانخراط الاقتصادي سيسهم في تعزيز السعي المتبادل للتنمية الوطنية، اضافة الى الاسهام في بناء اجراءات الثقة بين البلدين." ومن هذا المنطلق، اعلنت الباكستان مؤخرا عن نيتها منح الهند مرتبة الاكثر تفضيلا في التبادل التجاري، الذي، ان قدر له التطبيق، يحمل في طياته عوامل كبيرة لتعزيز التبادل التجاري بين البلدين. واتفق وزراء التجارة ايضا على تنشيط اكبر للمشاركة بين القطاعين الخاصين في بلدهما. ان تطبيق ذلك قد "يغير المعادلة" لانشاء علاقة شاملة."
 
 
التحليل:
مفاجأة آب/اغسطس للحزب الجمهوري: ترشيح ريك بيري لخوض الانتخابات الرئاسية
 
         يتوثب حاكم ولاية تكساس، ريك بيري، لتصدر عناوين الاحداث عند اعلانه عن ترشيحه لخوض الانتخابات الرئاسية عن الحزب الجمهوري في غضون اسابيع معدودة. وتعد فترة حكمه لولاية تكساس اطول مدة لأي حاكم ولاية في تاريخ اميركا وولاية تكساس، اذ اعتلى منصب حاكم الولاية في اعقاب استقالة جورج بوش الابن ابان فوزه في الانتخابات الرئاسية لعام 2002، واستمر لفترتين رئاسيتين متتالستسن في حكم الولاية، 2006 و 2010.
 
         ومن المرجح ان يلقى اعلان ترشيحه ترحيبا كبيرا بين اوساط القاعدة المحافظة للحزب الجمهوري، وهو الذي اشار اليه استطلاع للرأي في ولاية فلوريدا اذ فاز بيري بالمرتبة الاولى بين المرشحين، وفاز على خصمه ميت رومني حتى قبل الاعلان عن ترشيحه. فيما يخص علاقة بيري بجورج بوش الابن، ينبغي ملاحظة دعم جورج بوش خصم بيري لانتخابات حاكم الولاية، كيت بيلي هاتشيسون، العام الماضي في اشارة واضحة الى حالة الجفاء بين الاثنين، ليس اقلها خلفياتهما الاجتماعية المتباينة جدا وبيئتهما الثقافية غير المشتركة؛ اذ ينحدر بيري من عائلة ميسورة الحال تفلح ارضها بايديها ووالده ينتسب للحزب الديموقراطي، بينما ينحدر جورج بوش من عائلة نخبوية من اركان النظام السياسي تتميز في مكانتها وامتيازاتها وتحالفاتها الاجتماعية الراقية. كما وتجدر الاشارة الى ان بيري حديث العهد بالحزب الجمهوري الذي نال عضويته عام 1990، بعدما ترأس الحملة الانتخابية للمرشح آل غور في ولاية تكساس عام 1988؛ خلافا لجورج بوش الابن والاب واللذين يملكان ثروة شخصية هائلة بسبب ارتباطاتهما بالصناعات والكارتلات النفطية والمؤسسة السياسية – الأمنية. وبعد انقضاء عقد من الزمن في منصب حاكم ولاية تكساس، اضحى بيري علما يحسب له حساب بين اقطاب الحزب الجمهوري وكبار مموليه، ويشبه احيانا بأنه النسخة المستحدثة للرئيس ليندون جونسون لمهارته وحنكته السياسية، ميزات يفتقدها جورج بوش الابن.
 
         بالنظر الى سجل بيري في الحكم ومهارته السياسية، يمكننا القول ان الادارة الاميركية في عهده، ان تم له ذلك، ستشهد بعض التحول الجوهري عن سياسات جورج بوش الابن، لا سيما وان بيري من انصار احداث تخفيضات اعمق في الانفاق الحكومي خاصة في المستوى التعليمي. اما فيما يتعلق بموقفه الخاص من الشرق الاوسط، تجدر الاشارة الى قيام بيري بزيارة فلسطين المحتلة بصفته حاكم ولاية، وقربه الفكري والعقائدي من وزير الدفاع الاسبق دونالد رامسفيلد مما يؤشر على عمق تأثير رامسفيلد على سياسات بيري المقبلة، خاصة في ظل توفر انباء مؤكدة تشير الى الدور الاساسي الذي لعبه رامسفيلد في صياغة خطاب بيري حول السياسة الخارجية والأمن القومي الذي القاه امام مجلسي الشيوخ والنواب لولاية تكساس قبل نحو اسبوعين من الزمن. كما اجرى مكتب بيري في تكساس اتصالا خاصا بمكتب رامسفيلد مؤخرا يطلب منه ترشيح بعض الاسماء التي لديها خبرة في شؤون الأمن القومي، والتي من بينها كان دوغلاس فايث أحد مهندسي سياسة العدوان على العراق.
 
 
 As a result, there was no major theme in the papers published.
 
 As he comes closer to announcing that he will run for president, he has the potential of becoming a favorite amongst Republicans. Some polls show that he will catapult to first place amongst Republican candidates once he throws his hat into the ring.
 
 Our analysis discusses the tension between Bush and Perry, their different backgrounds, and where a potential Perry Administration would emulate and diverge from Bush’s.
 
 They note, “The extremists on both sides want the world to be polarized. In al Qaeda’s fantasies, Christians and Jews would not live in the world of Islam; America and the West would be driven out of all lands that have historically belonged to Islam, from Spain to Palestine to Kashmir. In the extremist right’s fantasy, Muslims would be driven out of Europe and America. Of course, the extremists are also better at killing their own than their enemy. Breivik killed his fellow Norwegians by the dozen, not Muslims. Al Qaeda has killed far more Muslims in its rampage of violence over the last decade and a half—many more Iraqis, Pakistanis, Yemenis, and others than Americans and Europeans. That is the other horrible convergence between the extremes.”
 
 While the administration has stressed its support for democracy movements in the region, it should steer clear of a "one-size-fits-all" policy in response to the "Arab Spring," says CFR's Robert Danin. He stresses the importance of fostering economic development in the region to bolster political change, and working with Syria's neighbors and the international community to find a common position on Syria
 
 They note, “As the fighting on the ground has intensified this week, there has also been a flurry of diplomatic activity by all the sides to reach a political solution. A week after French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe revealed that Paris was in contact with officials in Tripoli, France softened its position on Qaddafi’s exit and suggested he could remain in the country if he left power.  The White House followed suit, suggesting that it was up to the Libyan people to decide if Qaddafi remained in Libya after he steps down.  Russia is continuing its diplomatic role as an interlocutor between NATO and Tripoli to secure Qaddafi’s exit. After Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov discussed the next diplomatic steps in Libya with President Obama last week, Russia expanded its contacts with officials in both Tripoli and Benghazi.  While there has been little tangible progress amid the rebel offensive, President Dmitry Medvedev said on Tuesday that a compromise between Qaddafi and the rebels was still possible.”
 
 They encourage more support for the protestors by the US by noting, “It is characteristic of the Obama White House to wish to fade into the background. And in this case, it is understandable that the president does not wish to be the pacesetter of change in Syria. Not all of Syria has gone to the streets. But to believe that the entire country must erupt before American policymakers can be certain of a consensus is to misunderstand the courage of the men, women, and children who have already taken fate into their hands. The opposition has already made its stance clear, not merely by braving the regime's depredations for nearly half a year, but in doing so peacefully. Assad does not have their consent to rule them and he will never have it. So what is Obama waiting for?”
 
 This article argues that one driver for the ongoing resilience, or even revival, of Sunni militancy is the growing influence of the Jaysh Rijal al-Tariq al-Naqshabandi (JRTN) movement, which has successfully tapped into Sunni Arab fear of Iraq's Shi'a-led government and the country's Kurdish population, while offering an authentic Iraqi alternate to al-Qa'ida in Iraq. The features of JRTN are becoming clearer, providing an interesting case study of an insurgent movement that learned from the mistakes of other militants and has successfully created a hybrid of Islamist themes and nationalist military expertise.
 
 They note, “Finally, NATO’s Libyan operation presents Russia with multiple geopolitical risks. Once again Moscow believes that NATO, backed by Washington, has usurped the clear meaning of a UN resolution to intervene unilaterally in a civil war on behalf of forces opposing Russia’s client or partner and to impose democracy by force. Russia also worries that this could lead (as may well happen) to a prolonged stalemate that could further inflame its and its neighbors’ restive Muslim populations and the entire Middle East. Second, the potential victory of these revolutionary forces and NATO could lead them to ratchet up similar pressure on Syria and use Libya as a precedent for intervening there. Third, if the Libyan and Syrian revolutionaries were to win, such a victory could lead them to look to NATO, not Moscow, in the future. This would result in strengthening the Western presence in the Middle East and allowing NATO to consolidate the area unilaterally. That would constitute a clear defeat of Moscow’s long-standing geopolitical objective of not letting the United States and/or NATO unilaterally organize the Middle East. Then Moscow would face regional marginalization, as well as another successful NATO unilateral precedent in coercive diplomacy.”
 
 One problem, however, is the economic situation in Egypt that is forcing political parties to look for populist answers rather than serious economic change. This paper concludes, “civil society, open public debate, and independent journalism are all crucial for the success of the economy, as well as the political transition. While many of the comparisons between the transitions in Central and Eastern Europe in the early 1990s and Egypt in 2011 are misleading, one lesson of the 1990s remains valid: a transition towards democracy and a free market economy is unlikely to succeed without broad public support and a popular understanding of its nature and importance. This can only occur in the context of a vibrant civil society engaged in a dialogue that will allow for broader ownership of the economic and political reforms that lie ahead. The international community can and should support the transfer of expertise from other parts of the world – not only Eastern Europe, but also South America, Turkey, and India – in the development of the institutions needed to open up public debate.
 
 The article notes, “Economic issues will also figure prominently in this round of the dialogue. The joint statement issued after the April 28 meeting of Indian and Pakistani commerce ministers stated that “increased trade and economic engagement would help not only in the mutual quest for national development, but also contribute to building trust between the two countries.” In that vein, Pakistan recently announced its intention to grant India most-favored nation (MFN) trading status, which, if acted upon, could have the potential to greatly enhance bilateral trade between the two states. The commerce secretaries also agreed to encourage greater engagement between the private sectors of the two countries. If pursued, that could be a real “game-changer” for the overall relationship.”
 
 
 

August Surprise: Gov. Rick Perry Enters Presidential Elections Race

 
 
 This time it is Texas Governor Rick Perry. Perry is the longest serving governor in the US and in Texas history. He became governor when George Bush resigned as governor in preparation to become president. He was elected to full terms in 2002, 2006, and 2010.
 
 However, in the meantime, his people are trying to line up a potential presidential campaign staff and Perry is making calls to his big Texas donors to make sure that they are onboard. 
 
 In Florida, a recent ARG poll shows Perry leading Romney amongst Republicans even though the Texas Governor hasn’t declared. 
 
 True, they are both swaggering, cowboy boot wearing, Republicans with a strong West Texas drawl, but the similarities end there. .
 
   When Perry ran for lieutenant governor, in 1998, Bush’s camp wanted everyone on the ticket to run controlled and disciplined races; the Perry team defied the order, and ever since, relations have been frosty. That was obvious last year as the Bush team quietly supported Perry’s primary opponent Kate Bailey Hutchinson. 
 
 Although raised in Texas, George W. Bush was the grandson of a US Senator and from an influential East Coast family. He also grew up in middle class surroundings in the bustling oil city of Midland, Texas. Beneath the Bush twang is a strong relationship to the moderate, East Coast, Republican establishment.
 
 He is a fifth generation Texan. He was born in Haskell County, Texas, which has a population of just over 6,000 and a median household income of $23,000. He was raised in, Paint Creek, an unincorporated community named after the local creek. His parents were tenant farmers who grew cotton in the dry West Texas plains. Speaking of his childhood, he told the Texas Monthly, “There were places in our house that you could see outside through the cracks by the windows.”
 
 When Bush went to college, he went to the Ivy League Yale University. He later got a MBA from Harvard Business School.
 
 It is known as one of the most conservative student bodies according to Princeton Review and its Corps of Cadets is the United States' largest uniformed student body outside the service academies (West Point, Annapolis, and the Air Force Academy). Members of the Corps have served in every armed conflict fought by the United States since 1876, and over 225 have served as generals or Flag Officers.
 
 Bush was in the exclusive Skull and Bones society and played rugby. Perry was a yell leader at sporting events (a male cheer leader). Perry also worked his way through school by selling books door to door and graduated with a degree in animal science. Bush graduated with a degree in history.
 
 Both spend some time in the US Air Force as pilots, but Bush moved into the oil business after being discharged. Perry went back to Paint Creek to farm with his father. 
 
 Bush’s grandfather was a US Senator and his father was a US congressman and head of the Republican National Committee before becoming Vice President under Reagan. Perry’s father, a Democrat, was a long-time Haskell County commissioner and school board member.
 
 He was a “Pit Bull” Democrat who was conservative and pushed for lower government spending. In 1988, he was chairman of the Al Gore presidential campaign in Texas. Two years later he became a Republican.
 
 In order to attract more small donors, he has moved right and appealed to the conservative bloc of voters. Now as a Texas governor with 10 years under his belt, he is attracting the big money attention he never had in the past.
 
 He has come up from a hard scrabble farming background. He has worked for everything he has. He cut his political teeth in the raucous Texas legislature. His political skills are more like former president Lyndon Johnson than George Bush.
 
 Growing up on a farm, he has more of a common touch. He will be better able to reach out and touch the undecided voter. As a veteran political fighter, he will be able to handle the rough back and forth of a campaign. And, he is telegenic, which doesn’t hurt in this day of mass media campaigning.
 
 Bush was an advocate of federal funding of education and didn’t fight spending by Congress. Given Perry’s tenure as governor, he will be tougher on government spending, including federal education spending. His tactical political skills will also help him force pet legislation through Congress.
 
 As a Republican he is pro-Israel and has visited there as governor. He also ordered Texas state pension funds to sell any stock in companies that do business in Iran.   However, his views on the region may well be defined by Former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld who helped organize Rick Perry's foreign policy and national security briefing in Austin two weeks ago.
 CNN has reported that a source very close to Rumsfeld confirms that last week several former top Pentagon officials from Rumsfeld's tenure traveled to Austin, Texas to meet with Governor Rick Perry on national security and foreign policy issues. The source doesn't want his name used because he says Rumsfeld is not re-entering the political fray and that the arrangements were all conducted by "Perry's office" contacting "Rumsfeld's office" for ideas about whom to speak with.

The two men never spoke directly. "Rumsfeld is not advising Perry," the source insisted.
 
 
 
 
 He was a pilot of C-130s in the 1970s and flew in Europe, Asia and the Americas. He also lived in Saudi Arabia. Of his experience in travelling he told an Abilene, Texas journalist, “I saw all of these different types of governments and I made the connections to how the people acted and looked, and it became abundantly clear to me that, at that particular point in time, that America was this very unique place and that our form of democracy was very rare, ... That was the greatest gift I received from my years of being in the military, and they really shaped my outlook on the rest of my life.”
 
 He has more personality and conservative credentials than Romney. He has a strong executive experience resume that Michelle Bachmann lacks. And, as governor of the state that created half of all the jobs created in the US in the last two years, he has an economic record that Obama would love.
 
 That is a mistake. The West Texas drawls may be the same, but the roads the two of them took to get them is very different. But when it comes to foreign policy and national security issues, we may find lots of similar approaches with more decorative packaging and “smarter” presentation.
 
 
PUBLICATIONS
 
 
India and Pakistan: Getting Down to Business?
By Karl F. Inderfurth and Jagmeet Singh
Center fro Strategic and International Studies
July 25, 2011
 
Over the past decade India and Pakistan have taken several steps toward reconciling their past and normalizing their relations. These have occurred amid a number of significant setbacks. Shortly after the historic Lahore Declaration was signed in 1999, the Kargil conflict broke out, bringing peace talks to an abrupt halt. The December 2001 terrorist attack on the Indian Parliament by Pakistani-based militants further derailed the normalization process and led to the mobilization of a million Indian and Pakistani troops along their border. In 2004, India and Pakistan announced that they would resume their “composite dialogue,” a structure to conduct parallel but separate talks on a wide range of issues separated into eight “baskets,” including trade, water rights, terrorism, and the disputed region of Jammu and Kashmir. This process continued until the November 2008 Mumbai attacks by Pakistani-based terrorists that resulted in the deaths of 166 people. India suspended the dialogue, citing the need for Pakistan to take concrete action against those responsible for the Mumbai attacks. In February of this year, at a meeting of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) in Thimpu, Bhutan, the foreign ministers of India and Pakistan made a surprise decision to resume the formal normalization process. The relationship has since shown some modest signs of improvement, helped by the “cricket diplomacy” of March, when Indian prime minister Manmohan Singh hosted Pakistani prime minister Yousuf Raza Gilani in Mohali for the Cricket World Cup semifinal match between India and Pakistan.
 
 
RUSSIA’S ANXIETIES ABOUT THE ARAB REVOLUTION
By Stephen Blank
Foreign Policy Research Institute
July 2011
E Note
 
By June 2011, the Arab revolutions had evolved into a series of disconnected but increasingly violent civil wars—particularly in Libya and Syria. The international community has certainly not been spared the effects of these wars. As a long-time patron—if not an ally—of these states, Russia views these trends with mounting anxiety. These revolutions and civil wars pose three serious challenges or even threats to Russia.
Domestically, the revolutions could inspire citizens to take autonomous political action against the regime. Alternatively, they could further inflame the insurgency in the North Caucasus among a largely Muslim population to which Russia is already dedicating approximately 250,000 regular army and Ministry of Interior forces. Meanwhile, Moscow clearly has no effective strategy for quelling this violence or for resolving this insurgency by political means. Russian domestic and external braggadocio is intended in part to hide the regime’s fears of domestic unrest. Russian officials believe and publicly profess that since 2003 the United States has been trying to foment democracy campaigns in Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) to undermine existing regimes there. Accordingly, they continue to promote the image of Russia as a besieged fortress surrounded by linked enemies, foreign governments and democratic reformers.
 
 
Libya Conflict: Weekly Recap
By Anthony Bell
Institute for the Study of War
July 21, 2011
 
On July 16, the United States extended formal diplomatic recognition over the weekend to the National Transitional Council (NTC), the Benghazi-based rebel government.  The United States had previously stopped short of extending formal recognition to the rebel government, instead referring to the NTC as the “legitimate and credible interlocutor of the Libyan people.” U.S. officials have said that by recognizing the NTC, they will be able to provide it with access to the $30 billion dollars of Libyan assets frozen as part of the U.S. and U.N. sanctions imposed on the regime at the start of the rebellion. Extending recognition may have been an urgent move to shore up the cash-strapped NTC, which recently said it was running short of funds for fuel, weapons and salaries. The Obama administration had previously said in May that it was working with Congress on legislation that would allow the NTC to take over the assets, but that effort appears to have stalled. After the U.S. decision, the rebels scored another diplomatic success after all thirty countries in the Libyan Contact Group agreed to formally recognize the NTC, although several--such as France--had already done so.
 
 
Free Syria
By Lee Smith
Hudson Institute - Weekly Standard
August 1, 2011
 
 The week of August 1 marks the beginning of Ramadan, the monthlong celebration that for many Muslims is the central event of the calendar. Where daytime fasting is the most arduous aspect of the season, especially when the holiday falls in midsummer, that discipline is alleviated come sundown, when families and friends gather to break the fast, feast, pray, and talk. For Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, however, Ramadan will be a leaner month: a month of Fridays. Since March, the uprising against Assad has gathered steam every Friday, as Syrians pour forth from their mosques and other meeting places and take to the streets to demonstrate against the regime in Damascus. Ramadan will string 30 such days together in a row, a prospect that must be daunting for a regime astonished that its murders, tortures, collective punishments, and mass detentions have not yet silenced the opposition.
 
By Michael Knights
Washington Institute for Near East Policy
July 2011
CTC Sentinel
 
The stabilization of Iraq has become wedged on a plateau, beyond which further improvement will be a slow process. One reason behind this stability is the ongoing virulence of northern and central Iraqi insurgents operating within Sunni Arab communities. Five predominately Sunni provinces and western Baghdad were responsible for an average of 68.5% of national incidents each month in 2011. This article argues that one driver for the ongoing resilience, or even revival, of Sunni militancy is the growing influence of the Jaysh Rijal al-Tariq al-Naqshabandi (JRTN) movement, which has successfully tapped into Sunni Arab fear of Iraq's Shi'a-led government and the country's Kurdish population, while offering an authentic Iraqi alternate to al-Qa'ida in Iraq. The features of JRTN are becoming clearer, providing an interesting case study of an insurgent movement that learned from the mistakes of other militants and has successfully created a hybrid of Islamist themes and nationalist military expertise.
 
 
Oslo's Clash of Civilizations
By Bruce Riedel
Brookings Institution  - Daily Beast
July 25, 2011
 
Jihadist websites were thrilled when the first news came out of Oslo last Friday that a powerful bomb had exploded outside the prime minister’s office in the heart of the city. Internet chat rooms associated with al Qaeda were quick to claim it was the work of Ansar al-Jihad al-Alami, or the Helpers of the Global Jihad. Some suggested it was a follow-up to a failed jihadist attack last December in Stockholm, in which a suicide bomber prematurely exploded his bomb before he got to his target: a department store filled with Christmas shoppers. As al Qaeda called that the “battle of Stockholm,” this nightmare would be called the “battle of Oslo.” Sweden and Norway would be punished for sending troops to fight in Afghanistan against al Qaeda and the Taliban. When the terrible news began to emerge that the Oslo bomb was only a precursor to even more horror at a youth camp outside the capital and that the murderer was not a jihadist at all but rather a Christian right-wing extremist, jihadist websites were unfazed. One said, “Let us rejoice regardless of who is responsible” for the death and misery in Norway.
 
The JRTN Movement and Iraq's Next Insurgency 
 
U.S. Priorities in a Changing Middle East
Interview of Robert Danin
Council on Foreign Relations
July 27, 2011
 
We must keep our focus on Egypt, first and foremost. As home to a quarter of the Arab peoples and perhaps the key galvanizer within the region, Egypt will be the critical trendsetter. A smooth and peaceful transition to a more representative government, with checks and balances, could have a positive demonstration effect. Similarly, a descent into greater sectarian conflict, a failed transition to effective civil governance, and no real improvement could precipitate more unrest and ultimately violence. The Obama administration understands that Egypt is central and is focused on that.
 
 
Egypt’s Democratic Transition: Five Important Myths About the Economy and International Assistance
By Michelle Dunne
Carnegie Endowment
July 2011
 
If the democratic transition in Egypt fails and the country adopts a repressive, authoritarian, or theocratic form of government, the consequences could be profound. Failure in Egypt could lead other countries in the region to turn away from the very idea of democratic reform. Of course, democracy in other countries will rise and fall due to local conditions. Nevertheless, if the transition in Egypt succeeds, and the country acquires a democratic, accountable, and efficient form of government, it is likely to become a powerful example and, ultimately, a stabilising force in a turbulent region. The grievances that led to the revolution of 25 January were chiefly political, but old economic grievances played a role as well. The rigged parliamentary elections of 2010, the ‘emergency’ repressive measures that lasted for decades, and the absence of freedom to speak and assemble robbed Egyptians of their sense of dignity. At the same time, Egyptians blamed their government for high rates of poverty, youth unemployment, corruption, illiteracy, and deep divisions between rich and poor.
 

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